Trump’s ‘Golden Age’ of Auto Production in Pictures

The golden age seems to be delayed.

Domestic Auto Production, Thousands of Units

Golden Age Hopes

President Trump’s policies in 2025–2026 aim to initiate a “golden age” of U.S. auto production through tariffs on foreign-made vehicles and parts, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing and jobs.

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‘They’re All Coming Back’ Trump Says

Yahoo!Finance reports ‘They’re All Coming Back’ Trump Says U.S. ‘Golden Age’ Will Begin Within 6–12 Months

President Trump says the next chapter of American manufacturing could be its boldest yet — and he’s urging the public to get ready for what he calls a “golden age.”

“Our car industry…went to Europe, they went to Mexico, Japan — they went all over. They went to South Korea,” Trump said. “And now it’s just the opposite. They’re all coming back. We have an age that’s coming up, the likes of which this country has never seen.”

Domestic Auto Production Detail

Domestic Auto Production Detail, Thousands of Units

Domestic Auto Production Detail

  • The all time high was 588,700 in March of 1995. That’s an annualized rate of 7.064 million units.
  • November 2025 production was 98,000. That’s an annualized rate of 1.176 million.

Data is through November 2025, Seasonally Adjusted but not Annualized.

The drop from 588,700 units to 98.000 units is a decline of 83.4 percent.

However, units should rise over time due to population growth. So let’s investigate per capita sales, adjusted by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (age 16+).

Domestic Auto Production per CNP Detail

CNP Adjusted Auto Production Detail Notes

  • At peak production the US produced 588,000 cars monthly for a population of 198 million people age 16 or over. Cars per CNP was 0.297.
  • We now produce 98,000 cars monthly for a population of 275 million people. Cars per CNP is 0.036.

Synopsis

Over time, production US production of cars has collapsed. Population-adjusted numbers are even worse.

Improvement in foreign cars and expense of US cars are the two primary reasons.

Trump wants to bring production back to the US. His main tool is tariffs.

While it’s possible to bring production back to the US as a percentage of US auto sales, bringing back overall production is difficult.

Costs

The U.S. is one of the highest-cost producers of cars in the world due to labor costs; tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto parts; stricter regulations; and US preference for larger cars and trucks.

Raising tariffs on cars, steel, aluminum, and auto parts can do nothing but raise the price of cars.

Raising tariffs on auto parts and cars made in Mexico is particularly stupid because the cars Mexico produces for the US would lose money if made in the US.

But OK, if Trump put 100% tariffs on all car imports, then purchases of imported cars would head to zero and domestic sales would then be 100 percent.

But overall car sales would drop and so would exports and auto-based employment.

Trump never looks at the hidden (in this case obvious, costs of tariffs). And he still does not understand that US consumers and Importers pay the cost of tariffs.

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Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock