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Economy

Another Look At The Incredulous January 2026 Jobs Report

Date: February 12, 2026

Do you believe the nonfarm payroll report for January 2026?

January Benchmark Revisions

2024: -511,000
2025: -785,000
2026: ???

2025 Analysis

For the full year in 2025, the economy only added 229,000 jobs
From July through December, the economy lost 45,000 jobs

Now we are supposed to believe the economy added 130,000 jobs in January of 2026.

January 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls Change by Sector in Thousands

Nonfarm Payrolls: +130
Manufacturing: +5
Construction: +33
Leisure and Hospitality: +1
Private Education and Health Care: +137
Professional and Business Services: +34
Information: -12
Financial: -22
Retail: +3
Wholesale: 0
Government: -42

Private education and health (demographic related) is again the strongest sector.

Do You Believe This?

CRUSHING ECONOMISTS' EXPECTATIONS! pic.twitter.com/WqYz8z5qlC

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) February 11, 2026

Even if you believe that (and we will not know until a year from now), a job loss of 45,000 in the second half of 2025 is hardly crushing it.

Tariffs Working as Expected

It was WAY too easy to predict. https://t.co/2lTXZzqmYi

— RealJohnGaltFLA (@RealJohnGaltFla) February 11, 2026

Foreign Born Nonsense

This statement by @MacroEdgeRes is total nonsense because foreign born stats are nonsense.https://t.co/u4fm1bF8Ow https://t.co/0isZlmMiUK

— Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) February 12, 2026

For 2024, the BLS admits that it undercounted employment by 2 million, spread out over a number of years. Instead of parsing that out in the correct months, the BLS plowed the entire adjustment into January of 2025.

All posts on foreign-born employment suffer this flaw. There are no back adjustments. We did not suddenly add 2.245 million jobs in January of 2025, all US-Born.

Nor did foreign-born employment rise in January of 2026. There is no valid data on foreign born employment.

More Nonsense From Trump

Trump says lower rates would save "at least one trillion dollars per year." The federal government's entire annual net interest bill was $970 billion in fiscal 2025—and much of that is locked in at rates on previously issued debt that wouldn't change even if rates fell tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/dKDVIsH7DX

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) February 11, 2026